The Case for Montenegro
BRUSSELS—During the 1990s, Balkan issues dominated the foreign policy debate in Washington. This is hardly the case today, which is probably a good thing. It suggests that considerable progress has been made in the region. Back then, America’s involvement was instrumental in securing peace, and it remains relevant today, at least on the political level, for ensuring that security and stability prevail. But all in all, democratic and economic reforms, not war, are now at the center of the region’s political focus.
Montenegro has been a principal beneficiary of these trends. Despite a politically turbulent year throughout the region, the country managed to chart impressive GDP growth of almost eight percent in 2008. All its major economic indicators are positive, and Podgorica has put together a convincing development strategy based on tourism, ecology and energy. The government of Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic is making steady and visible progress in reforming institutions and adopting modern legislation in the hope of speeding up the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration. Last December, as part of this process, Montenegro handed in its application for EU membership.
Montenegro’s move reflects an emerging regional reality. Membership in the European Union and NATO are two political priorities of the day in the Balkans. These institutions are understood to be the staples of long-term stability and economic renaissance. There is no alternative for the region, which probably explains why there is enthusiasm and support for NATO membership even in Serbia, where political progress is still subject to nationalist sentiments.
The development is a positive one for the Atlantic Alliance as well. More Balkans in NATO, and therefore less NATO in the Balkans, means more hardware to deal with global hot spots like Afghanistan. As NATO continues to transform into an organization that focuses on out-of-area operations, a scaling-down of its military presence in the Balkan theater must continue. Which is where Montenegro comes in.
Montenegro will be the next regional state to apply for membership in the Alliance, and the case for its inclusion is a compelling one. It is the last Adriatic coastal state in line for NATO membership. With Montenegro in the club, the NATO security perimeter around the Adriatic Sea will be complete. This, in turn, will boost the Alliance’s ability to do reconnaissance missions and interdictions in the Adriatic, and protect the Balkans from organized crime, smuggling, piracy and terrorism.
The 1990s was a lost decade for the Balkan region, with local institutions, economy and society deeply influenced and undermined by war. Periods of lawlessness, sanctions and disputes over territories turned parts of countries—and in some cases entire nations—into no-man’s-land. This naturally attracted organized crime and smugglers, elements which now use the Balkans as a major corridor for drugs, contraband, prostitutes, and even to facilitate the entry of terrorists into Europe. Full NATO membership can help strengthen and nurture those institutions necessary to fight and withstand the pressure from organized crime.
In addition, some key energy and transportation infrastructure is already traversing the region, connecting central Europe with the Caspian and Central Asia. The security of this trade and energy corridor depends on the nature of relations between Montenegro and NATO.
The recent conflict between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia has had a chilling effect on Alliance politics. Already, there are some in Washington and abroad who have advocated a slowdown—if not an outright freeze—on NATO enlargement. Such a decision is fraught with danger, and threatens to jeopardize the fragile gains that have been made in the Balkans over the past decade.
In light of this trend, Montenegro’s candidacy matters a great deal. Qualifying Montenegro for NATO membership would suggest to the Montenegrins, and to everyone else, that expansion of the Atlantic Alliance is still on track. It would also ensure that other NATO aspirants remain on track with their domestic political and military reforms. And that, more than anything else, can help ensure that the region does not experience another lost decade.
Borut Grgic is director of the Institute for Strategic Studies, based in Brussels.
